Ehud Friedgut: Blissful ignorance and the Kahneman-Tversky paradox

Combinatorics and more

AmosDannyGili

Tversky, Kahneman, and Gili Bar-Hillel (WikiPedia). Taken by Maya Bar-Hillel at Stanford, summer 1979.

tversky kaneman

The following post was kindly contributed by Ehud Friedgut.

During the past week I’ve been reading, and greatly enjoying Daniel Kahneman’s brilliant book “Thinking fast and Slow”.

One of the most intriguing passages in the book is the description of an experiment designed by Kahneman and Tversky which exemplifies a judgmental flaw exhibited by many people, which supposedly indicates an irrational, or inconsistent behavior. I will describe their experiment shortly.
I still remember the first time I heard of this experiment, it was related to me over lunch in Princeton by Noga Alon. Returning to this problem, 15 years later, I still, as in my initial exposure to the problem, made the “inconsistent” choice made by the vast majority of the subjects of the study. In this post I wish to argue that…

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